Date updated:08-13-2007
Right now, the market seems torn: is inflation, indeed, decelerating, as the Fed seems to be forecasting? Or is it about to pick back up again?
Here are some ideas on how to set up your portfolio if you believe inflation is decelerating, and that the Fed will soon cut interest rates.
(if you can think of any stocks, ETF's, or mutual funds that I don't already have here, please tell me, and I'll add them in)
By: Matthew

-
LMVTX
Legg Mason Capita - $34.53
- -1.17%
- $N/A
The Play: "Legg Mason Value Trust" The Thinking: Bill Miller - "Value Trusts"'s portfolio manager - is extremely bullish for 2007. As Mr. Altucher pointed out elsewhere, if you're bullish for 2007, you might as well start here...

-
MRVL
Marvell Technolog - $18.07
- -0.55%
- $18.24
The Play: "Marvell Technology" The Thinking: This thing can move. Volatile as all heck. Also, a fed cut should mean an increase in risk-appetite, which would basically mean an increase in the desire for Marvell...

-
GLW
Corning Inc - $17.84
- -1.16%
- $18.04
The Play: "Corning" The Thinking: It's product line should make it a leader in an up market. In addition, it seems to be a favorite for hot money lately...

-
CTXS
Citrix Systems - $42.11
- +0.77%
- $41.95
The Play: "Citrix Systems" The Thinking: Spurred by a rate cut and future earnings increases (?), CTXS could move higher.

-
MGRIX
Marsico Growth Fu - $15.24
- -0.85%
- $N/A
The Play: "Marsico Growth" The Thinking: In an up market, Marsico's alpha is incredible...

-
WFC
Wells Fargo & Co - $26.43
- -3.61%
- $27.23
The Play: "Wells Fargo" The Thinking: Good long-term growth capacity, terrific management. Rate cuts should propel investors to the best bank around. A rate cut would also alleviate recent fears (about subprime exposure) that have been hanging over the stock.

-
GS
Goldman Sachs Grp - $151.10
- -1.98%
- $154.27
The Play: "Goldman Sachs" The Thinking: One of the key leaders during a move up. If a rate cut occured, this trend should continue. In addition, the likely pick-up in market activity should bode well for GS's earnings for 2007...

-
BSC
Elements Bg Sm Cp - $10.276
- +0.25%
- $10.3999
The Play: "Bear Stearns" The Thinking: A rate cut would alleviate fears over BSC's exposure to the current subprime mortgage situation. The fact that it's such a high-quality company, as well as its low multiple, should only help it further... Benefits from up markets as well...
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A. I have to lay this out, so give me a
break on the length guys.
I'm always working for you guys first
off all! I just got done reading a good
report regarding what I think is a good
investment not trade...Investment! Can
you believe I said that word?...me Mr
trader...lol
Please see old SNH post here
http://www.stockpickr.com/members/view/a
nswers/67958/
My thesis for owning (SNH)...Is a couple
fold. One lets put the cards on the
table and call it how it is. We are in
the midst of a progressive social
agenda.
And the care of the rapidity exploding
care of the elderly will be a big part
of
that. It is not too far fetched to think
them facilities will see some type of
subsidy in the next 4 years....My
opinion that is. So I guess that could
lend
some credence to the visibility in some
of their earnings to an extant. Brian
lasrson and i had a conversation earlier
with regards to REITS. he wanted to
start shorting Commercial rental and
tenant rental REIT's. (I hope I spoke
properly for him).I added that come debt
rollover time...the folks who are
buying the debt want to see(as one of
their metrics) occupancy numbers and in
some cases proof of future lease
payments. that is problematic in the
sectors
or
REITS. I dont see that in the health
cars REITS for obvious reasons. One, is
because if you ever ended up in a
facility the get your SS benefits from
the
govt. Also the divys are real attractive
here. Are they backed by a quasi payer
so to speak?
The report is entitled :
Senior and Healthcare REITs Most Stable
Segment of Beaten Down Sector; Data
Center REITs Also Offer Positive Returns
According to Industry Expert
On Monday July 27, 2009, 9:27 pm EDT
"TWST: Where are you pointing
investors at this juncture?
Mr. AuBuchon: Not a lot of places
unfortunately. I think where we're
really
starting to focus our attention is the
healthcare REIT space. Our current
position on the sector is an Evenweight
rating but we do have a couple of
Outperforms, HCP, Inc. (HCP) and Senior
Housing Properties Trust (SNH). As I
said previously, I think REIT
performance is going to be flat for the
next year
in response to poor fundamentals and if
you do believe in that thesis, then it
makes sense to be a little bit more
defensive. The healthcare group
generally
fits the defensive definition and their
balance sheets as a group are much
better than other property types. We're
not there yet. I do have some concerns
in the healthcare space related to the
senior housing space, primarily
independent living, which is essentially
retirement communities. The cost to
live in those communities is primarily
funded with private capital, and
private
capital sources are usually housing and
equity/debt investments. Clearly both
of
those capital sources have undergone
some pretty significant declines over
the
last several years and, as a result, I'm
concerned about the occupancy and
rental rates in that space. But if we
start to see that area stabilizing,
we'll
feel much more comfortable recommending
that people look at the healthcare
group
a bit more aggressively."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Senior-and
-Healthcare-REITs-twst-2459749305.html?x
=0
A. The only one I own : SLX,
too hard pick a winner out all of them
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