Date updated:08-13-2007
Right now, the market seems torn: is inflation, indeed, decelerating, as the Fed seems to be forecasting? Or is it about to pick back up again?
Here are some ideas on how to set up your portfolio if you believe inflation is picking back up, forcing the Fed to move interest rates up to 5.5% (and beyond???)
(if you can think of any stocks, ETF's, or mutual funds that I don't already have here, please tell me, and I'll add them in)
By: Matthew

-
BEARX
Federated Prudent - $5.57
- +0.18%
- $N/A
The Play: "The Prudent Bear Fund" (BEARX) The Thinking: A rate hike likely shaves off 75+ points (it could be a lot more...). Thus, what better place to be than "The Prudent Bear Fund", the supposed best "short-only" mutual fund around (according to Morningstar). Take note of management's long track record, as well as the beneficial "redemption fee" set-up (which allows you to get in and out with minimal damange, as long as you stay in for at least 1 month) Minimum Investment: $2,000 Expense Ratio: 1.77% Load: None Redemption Fees: - First 30 Days: 1% - > 30 Days: 0%

-
RRPIX
Rising Rates Oppo - $14.27
- -0.28%
- $N/A
The Play: "ProFunds Rising Rates Opp Inv" (RRPIX) The Thinking: RRPIX "seeks daily investment results that correspond to 125% of the inverse of the daily movement of the most recently issued 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond". Thus, if you believe rates are going to rise, this might be a good place to go. Minimum Investment: $15,000 Expense Ratio: 1.43% Load: None Redemption Fees: none Alternative Play: RYJUX

-
TIP
Ishares Barclays - $104.93
- 0.00%
- $N/A
The Play: "iShares Lehman TIPS Bond" (TIP) The Thinking: If you think inflation will pick up, you might want to try TIPS, which give investors a set "real return" on their investment. You could also try and play this for a quick gain... Minimum Investment: this is an ETF. Thus, it is traded just like any other security. That being said, your order should be large enough that transaction costs don't eat too much into your returns.

-
PG
Procter Gamble - $61.01
- -0.47%
- $61.06
The Play: "Procter & Gamble" (PG) The Thinking: Old reliable... Even if they raise rates to 17.5% overnight, you'll still go and buy some Crest toothpaste. Minimum Investment: see above (TIP) Dividend Yield: 1.91%

-
RAI
Reynolds American - $51.49
- -0.98%
- $52.01
The Play: "Reynolds American" (RAI) The Thinking: Alright, here's an aggressive way to play this. It's risky (the short ratio is currently 35.6 according to Yahoo!), so be careful with it. The thinking is that an unexpected rate hike makes investors flock to safety, and thus tobacco companies. In fear of the wave of purchasers coming their way, those shorting the stock begin to pick up their shorts. Because the short ratio is 35.6 (again, according to Yahoo!), this propels the stock considerably higher. Dividend Yield: 4.72% Alternative Play: MO (this would be the safe way to play it. The thinking here would be, "hey, they're looking for safety? Then they'll come to the safest tobacco company around...")

-
PEP
Pepsico Inc - $58.96
- -0.92%
- $59.60
The Play: "Pepsi" (PEP) The Thinking: See "PG" above. Dividend Yield: 1.86%

-
EEM
Ishares Msci E.m. - $36.83
- -0.99%
- $37.18
NOTE: THIS IS A SHORT!!! (in other words, rather than purchase it, short it) The Play: Short "iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index" (EEM) The Thinking: An increase in rates is coincided with a decrease in the appetite for risk, leading to massive outflows from foreign markets. Such an occurance was witnessed this past summer.

-
EEM
Ishares Msci E.m. - $36.83
- -0.99%
- $37.18
NOTE: THIS IS A SHORT!!! (in other words, rather than purchase it, short it) The Play: Short "iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index" (EEM) The Thinking: An increase in rates is coincided with a decrease in the appetite for risk, leading to massive outflows from foreign markets. Such an occurance was witnessed this past summer.
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A. Anyone interested in the stock markets
and financial history of the world thus
far........I strongly recommend watching
the "Accent of Money"...on PBS
this
month. It's a piece put together by a
guy named professor Niall Ferguson.
very
good TV (unlike most of crap on
nowadays)..like the Housewives of
Orange
County..lol
This Guy (Ferguson) was also on Stephen
Colbert last night.
This special covers everything from
Quant funds (that use mathematical
algorithms...ie Long Term Capital
Management LTCM....Scholes and Merton )
to
determine futures contracts...to the
bond market...to the future of
"Chiamerica"....LTCM got a new
york fed brokered BAIL OUT when the
Russian
economy went under ya know. And there a
hedge fund....lol
he has a book by the same name BTW >
The Ascent of Money: A Financial History
of the World (Hardcover)
by Niall Ferguson (Author)
Asked by - steve g 7 months ago - 6
answers - 256 views
A. The only one I own : SLX,
too hard pick a winner out all of them
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