How To Play A Rate Hike
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Created by mock portfolio
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Date updated:08-13-2007

Right now, the market seems torn: is inflation, indeed, decelerating, as the Fed seems to be forecasting? Or is it about to pick back up again?

Here are some ideas on how to set up your portfolio if you believe inflation is picking back up, forcing the Fed to move interest rates up to 5.5% (and beyond???)

(if you can think of any stocks, ETF's, or mutual funds that I don't already have here, please tell me, and I'll add them in)


By: Matthew

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • BEARX
    Federated Prudent
  • $5.70
  • -0.18%
  • $N/A

The Play: "The Prudent Bear Fund" (BEARX) The Thinking: A rate hike likely shaves off 75+ points (it could be a lot more...). Thus, what better place to be than "The Prudent Bear Fund", the supposed best "short-only" mutual fund around (according to Morningstar). Take note of management's long track record, as well as the beneficial "redemption fee" set-up (which allows you to get in and out with minimal damange, as long as you stay in for at least 1 month) Minimum Investment: $2,000 Expense Ratio: 1.77% Load: None Redemption Fees: - First 30 Days: 1% - > 30 Days: 0%

People owning BEARX also tend to own: PHOSHYAPFCNZLXDODFXEWJEWT

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • RRPIX
    Rising Rates Oppo
  • $14.31
  • -0.21%
  • $N/A

The Play: "ProFunds Rising Rates Opp Inv" (RRPIX) The Thinking: RRPIX "seeks daily investment results that correspond to 125% of the inverse of the daily movement of the most recently issued 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond". Thus, if you believe rates are going to rise, this might be a good place to go. Minimum Investment: $15,000 Expense Ratio: 1.43% Load: None Redemption Fees: none Alternative Play: RYJUX

People owning RRPIX also tend to own: APFBEARXCNZLXDODFXEWJEWTEWY

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • TIP
    Ishares Barclays
  • $104.32
  • +0.25%
  • $104.24

The Play: "iShares Lehman TIPS Bond" (TIP) The Thinking: If you think inflation will pick up, you might want to try TIPS, which give investors a set "real return" on their investment. You could also try and play this for a quick gain... Minimum Investment: this is an ETF. Thus, it is traded just like any other security. That being said, your order should be large enough that transaction costs don't eat too much into your returns.

People owning TIP also tend to own: EPIQJNJCUTDBCEEMEFAFXY

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • PG
    Procter Gamble
  • $61.04
  • +0.94%
  • $60.17

The Play: "Procter & Gamble" (PG) The Thinking: Old reliable... Even if they raise rates to 17.5% overnight, you'll still go and buy some Crest toothpaste. Minimum Investment: see above (TIP) Dividend Yield: 1.91%

People owning PG also tend to own: CLCTDENNFFEXJBSSJRCCMEEMSFT

TheStreet.com Rating: B+ What is this?

  • +
  • RAI
    Reynolds American
  • $48.60
  • +0.33%
  • $48.37

The Play: "Reynolds American" (RAI) The Thinking: Alright, here's an aggressive way to play this. It's risky (the short ratio is currently 35.6 according to Yahoo!), so be careful with it. The thinking is that an unexpected rate hike makes investors flock to safety, and thus tobacco companies. In fear of the wave of purchasers coming their way, those shorting the stock begin to pick up their shorts. Because the short ratio is 35.6 (again, according to Yahoo!), this propels the stock considerably higher. Dividend Yield: 4.72% Alternative Play: MO (this would be the safe way to play it. The thinking here would be, "hey, they're looking for safety? Then they'll come to the safest tobacco company around...")

People owning RAI also tend to own: AAALLAPCBUDCOPCVXDOW

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • PEP
    Pepsico Inc
  • $61.76
  • +0.87%
  • $60.99

The Play: "Pepsi" (PEP) The Thinking: See "PG" above. Dividend Yield: 1.86%

People owning PEP also tend to own: ADMAVPBF-BBTICLCVSDEO

TheStreet.com Rating: B+ What is this?

  • +
  • EEM
    Ishares Msci E.m.
  • $39.65
  • -0.13%
  • $39.31

NOTE: THIS IS A SHORT!!! (in other words, rather than purchase it, short it) The Play: Short "iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index" (EEM) The Thinking: An increase in rates is coincided with a decrease in the appetite for risk, leading to massive outflows from foreign markets. Such an occurance was witnessed this past summer.

People owning EEM also tend to own: AAPLBACBBYBGTCSCOCTSHDEO

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • EEM
    Ishares Msci E.m.
  • $39.65
  • -0.13%
  • $39.31

NOTE: THIS IS A SHORT!!! (in other words, rather than purchase it, short it) The Play: Short "iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index" (EEM) The Thinking: An increase in rates is coincided with a decrease in the appetite for risk, leading to massive outflows from foreign markets. Such an occurance was witnessed this past summer.

People owning EEM also tend to own: AAPLBACBBYBGTCSCOCTSHDEO

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

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