I don't personally care what the number is. Put your thesis together based on
sector bets or stock bets. Small cap is outperforming large cap and growth is
outperforming value. Stick to this thesis and that gets you halfway there. Look
into things by sector and you will see there is sector rotation occurring.
Industrials, energy, and materials have been leaders for months. Financials,
homebuilders, retailers, and anything consumer related have been obliterated. If
you can figure this out and understand that big money is taking profits and
finding opportunities in beat up stocks, you will make bank. Just make sure you
sell when the beaten up stocks rally.... They will retest their lows around
these levels by time the end of the 3rd quarter rolls around.

-Kurt

Before the holiday, trading is usually very light. I doubt that we will see much
"drama". I expect a fairly flat day overall.

Let the market call the bottom...it always does.

I was thinking that tuesday would be the bounce day too. I'm not getting in the
details of the Dow though. I'm ready to buy on monday or tuesday.

However, the VIX has NOT risen like I thought it would. Could be an indication
that a bottom is not upcoming soon.

Agree with Bobby...but I think Monday will be worse, look for a big rally on
Tuesday. I guess I'm kinda calling a short term bottom on Monday...at best
Monday is a whipsaw day, down huge and then a big rally off the lows of the
day.

Capitulation is close. Everything that was working is getting hit now. Today's
tape was terrible and it ended at or near the lows of the day, which doesn't
bode well for tomorrow. Add to that, shortened pre-holiday trading days are
light in volume and tend to follow the trend of the days before, a jobs report
that will be bad and you have got a recipe for disaster tomorrow. I think you
will get a continuation of panicked selling on Monday, everyone coming back from
the holiday who didn't participate Friday getting out of their positions.
Tuesday, everyone waking up thinking it can't get any worse than it is and they
start buying again.

Anyway that's my theory, I don't think it will have anything to do with
technicals. I'm either going to come out of this looking like a genius or a
fool. I just hope it's on the genius side...LOL.

I think the round numbers on the Dow cannot be used to measure support and
resistance at all. The best thing to do is to look at statistically significant
moves in price (on indices or stocks). The QQQQ Crash system that I describe in
the Active Trader section is one example. Basically, if a stock, say MSFT, GOOG,
AAPL, RIMM, NVDA, moves more than 2 standard deviations away from its 10 day
moving average its usually a good time to buy for a very short pop. If its a
stock like NVDA you can buy NVDA and short QQQQ against it as a hedge. But play
only for a 5-8% move.

Thursday is going to be a horror show.
Light volume and half day.
Not a day to sell at all.
But if you're inclined to buy, it's like a sale at Macy's.
Monday should be an up day, maybe a lot.
Holiday weekends are usually REALLY DOWN !